Every claim, graded

Crum & Langer (2007) told 84 female hotel room attendants that their work met the Surgeon General's definition of exercise. Four weeks later, with no real change in what they did, the women weighed less and showed lower BMI, waist-to-hip ratio and blood pressure. Perceived exercise rose from ~39.4% to ~79.4%. The effect is real but modest. It runs through expectation, effort and stress — a modulator, not magic.

Source: Crum, A. J., & Langer, E. J. (2007). Mind-set matters: Exercise and the placebo effect. Psychological Science, 18(2), 165–171.

Verified: May 6, 1954 — Bannister ran 3:59.4 at Oxford; Gunder Hägg's 4:01.4 (1945) had stood nine years; John Landy broke four minutes 46 days later. The barrier interpretation is fair, but training, pacing strategy and pacesetters improved at the same time. Barriers fall when preparation meets opportunity, not when belief alone changes.

Source: Historical record, 1954 (Bannister; Landy).

Meta-analysis (Macnamara, Hambrick & Oswald, 2014): practice explains ~26% of variance in games, 21% in music, 18% in sports, 4% in education, <1% in professions. '10,000 hours' is not a threshold; talent, timing and opportunity matter too. Practice is necessary and powerful, not sufficient.

Source: Macnamara, B. N., Hambrick, D. Z., & Oswald, F. L. (2014). Psychological Science, 25(8), 1608–1618.

The 70% solution is genuine USMC doctrine for decision-making under uncertainty, taught at The Basic School and popularized in David Freedman's Corps Business (2000). Jeff Bezos expresses the same logic ('70% of the information'). Acting at 70% rather than waiting for certainty is faithful to the source.

Source: USMC Basic School doctrine; Freedman, D. H. (2000). Corps Business.

The phrase originates from a 2013 Reddit post in r/getdisciplined by user ryans01 — not a study or book. As a behavioral rule it aligns with habit formation and behavioral activation. Real origin, real utility.

Source: ryans01 (2013). r/getdisciplined, Reddit.

Dimidjian et al. (2006) randomized 241 adults with major depression: behavioral activation — scheduling and doing meaningful activities — was comparable to antidepressant medication and outperformed cognitive therapy in severe depression. Note: the training said 'JAMA'; the journal was JCCP. The COBRA trial (2016) confirmed non-inferiority to CBT; the severity-moderator result is contested.

Source: Dimidjian, S., et al. (2006). Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 74(4), 658–670.

Sisk et al. (2018), two meta-analyses: mindset–achievement correlation r ≈ .10; intervention effects d ≈ .08 overall and d ≈ .19 for high-risk students. Growth mindset helps, especially for struggling students, but it has been oversold relative to its effect sizes.

Source: Sisk, V. F., et al. (2018). Psychological Science, 29(4), 549–571.

The flagship effect failed a 23-lab preregistered replication (Hagger et al., 2016; n=2,141; d=0.04). Mental fatigue and decision strain are real, and beliefs about willpower predict the experience (Job & Dweck), but 'limited fuel tank' is not the mechanism. Don't use 'I'm depleted' as a license to quit early.

Source: Hagger, M. S., et al. (2016). Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11(4), 546–573.

Danziger et al. (2011): 1,112 parole decisions by eight Israeli judges; favorable rulings fell from ~65% to near zero across sessions, rebounding after breaks. But case order was not random (Weinshall-Margel & Shapard, 2011), simulations suggest the magnitude was overstated (Glöckner, 2016), and a 2025 registered report found no effect in physicians. 'Decision quality degrades over long sessions' survives; the headline numbers do not.

Source: Danziger, S., Levav, J., & Avnaim-Pesso, L. (2011). PNAS, 108(17), 6889–6892.

Dawson & Reid (1997, Nature): 17 hours of sustained wakefulness impairs performance like ~0.05% BAC; ~24 hours like ~0.10%. Williamson & Feyer (2000) found similar. The claim is about sustained wakefulness — not ordinary 6-hour nights — so '7 hours = drunk' overstates it, but the direction (sleep loss degrades cognition, mood, self-control) is solid.

Source: Dawson, D., & Reid, K. (1997). Nature, 388(6639), 235.

Gloria Mark et al. (2008, CHI) documented real costs of workplace interruption — interrupted workers compensate by working faster, with more stress and frustration. The famous '23 minutes 15 seconds' figure comes from Mark's follow-up interviews, not the 2008 paper. Protect focus blocks; drop the exact number.

Source: Mark, G., Gudith, D., & Klocke, U. (2008). The cost of interrupted work. CHI '08.

Crum et al. (2011) gave 46 people an identical 380-calorie shake under two labels. The 'indulgent' label (claimed 620 cal) caused a steeper drop in ghrelin, the hunger hormone, than the 'sensible' label (claimed 140 cal). Mindset measurably shapes the body.

Source: Crum, A. J., Corbin, W. R., Brownell, K. D., & Salovey, P. (2011). Mind over milkshakes. Health Psychology, 30(4), 424–429.

The protocol derives from UCSF psychiatrist Cameron Sepah's CBT approach (stimulus control + exposure-response prevention) for compulsive tech use — legitimate. But no evidence shows fasting changes receptors or baseline dopamine. Lembke's Dopamine Nation (2021) is the reputable version: homeostasis and pleasure–pain balance. Keep the behavior; drop the story.

Source: Sepah, S. C. (2019), UCSF; Lembke, A. (2021). Dopamine Nation. Dutton.

The 5x claim traces to Steven Kotler's The Rise of Superman (2014), citing a ten-year McKinsey study that has never been published or located. Flow is a well-documented psychological state (Csikszentmihalyi) and challenge–skill balance genuinely improves engagement — but never quote the 5x.

Source: Kotler, S. (2014). The Rise of Superman. New Harvest.

Zeigarnik's 1927 finding has replicated poorly: her own students found fewer than a third of 44 attempts succeeded; van Bergen's 1968 exact replication failed; a 2025 meta-analysis (Ghibellini & Meier) found no memory advantage. What replicates: the pull to resume interrupted tasks (Ovsiankina) and unfulfilled goals intruding until discharged or planned (Masicampo & Baumeister, 2011).

Source: Masicampo, E. J., & Baumeister, R. F. (2011). JPSP, 100(5), 810–826.

The '500 pages a day' quote traces to Todd Combs's 2013 recollection of Buffett's advice to Columbia students; a 2010 WSJ profile described 500 pages a week, and Quote Investigator could not verify the daily figure. Verified: Buffett reports 5–6 hours of reading daily and frames knowledge as compounding — the principle is sound.

Source: Quote Investigator (2018); WSJ (2010).

Flynn's own income reports confirm ~$7,900–8,000 in October 2008 — his first month monetizing a blog that had existed for almost two years, not his first month online. First-year total ~$200,000, documented publicly. The 'overnight' framing hides the unpaid groundwork, which is itself the lesson.

Source: Flynn, P. Smart Passive Income income reports (2008–present).

Baumeister et al. (2001) reviewed 200+ studies showing bad events, feedback and emotions outweigh good ones of equal magnitude; Ito et al. (1998) found larger brain responses to negative images. But no study supports a 40–50x ratio — the number is stage-talk with no primary source. Gottman's 5:1 applies only to marriage; the 3:1 positivity ratio was retracted.

Source: Baumeister, R. F., et al. (2001). Review of General Psychology, 5(4), 323–370.

Adams, Converse, Hales & Klotz (2021, Nature): across eight experiments, people overwhelmingly add elements when improving a system, even when subtracting is better. Leidy Klotz's Subtract (2021) is the practitioner translation. (The training's 'Leidy cloths' is a garbled transcription of 'Leidy Klotz'.)

Source: Adams, G. S., et al. (2021). Nature, 592(7853), 258–261.

Sabourin et al. (1990) found highly hypnotizable subjects showed greater theta power, and theta increased during hypnosis. The claims about 'programming before age 7' and theta as a direct gateway go beyond the evidence. Direction: supported. Magnitude and age claims: unverified.

Source: Sabourin, M. E., et al. (1990). International Journal of Psychophysiology, 10(2), 125–147.

There is no mechanism by which an empty space attracts outcomes. The useful residue is well supported: non-attachment to outcomes improves decision quality and reduces desperate behavior (scarcity degrades judgment — Mullainathan & Shafir), and goals direct attention. Use the psychology; discard the cosmology.

Source: Mullainathan, S., & Shafir, E. (2013). Scarcity.

The lag is standard in compounding processes — skill, audience and wealth show delayed visible returns; the J-curve is real anti-quitting medicine. 'Balance is a lie' is a strategy claim (depth beats hedging), a values judgment, not a finding. The 'mirror' is your filter: the mind admits evidence matching belief, so the world appears to reflect your state.

Source: Compounding & expertise literature; Crum & Langer (2007); Simons & Chabris (1999).

Kaptchuk et al. (2010) gave IBS patients placebo pills clearly labeled as inactive; they improved versus no treatment. Replicated in chronic low back pain (Carvalho et al., 2016) and in a 2021 meta-analysis. Expectation, ritual and meaning carry much of the placebo effect — deception is not required.

Source: Kaptchuk, T. J., et al. (2010). Placebos without deception. PLoS ONE, 5(12), e15591.

The evidence-compatible core is behavioral activation: act first, let mood follow. The self-attacking framing is unnecessary and contrary to the evidence — self-attack is a documented risk factor, not a fuel. Correct framing: treat your situation as unacceptable and act accordingly.

Source: Dimidjian, S., et al. (2006). JCCP, 74(4), 658–670.

The original 2010 study reported testosterone +20% and cortisol −25%. A 200-person replication (Ranehill et al., 2015) found no hormone or risk-taking effects — only self-reported feelings of power. The original author later disavowed the strong claims. Posture briefly changes how powerful you feel; it does not measurably change your biology.

Source: Carney, Cuddy & Yap (2010); Ranehill et al. (2015). Psychological Science.

The figures come from Tor Norretranders' popular book The User Illusion (1998). They are estimates of sensory throughput versus the conscious fraction — never a measured finding. The RAS is a real brainstem structure, and attention filtering is a replicated phenomenon (see 3.6). Drop the numerology; keep the gorilla.

Source: Norretranders, T. (1998). The User Illusion. Viking.

Simons & Chabris (1999): roughly half of observers failed to notice a person in a gorilla suit while counting passes. Inattentional blindness is among the most replicated findings in psychology, and it is the legitimate basis for 'what you focus on, you find'.

Source: Simons, D. J., & Chabris, C. F. (1999). Gorillas in our midst. Perception, 28(9), 1059–1074.

Killingsworth & Gilbert (2010): ~250,000 iPhone samples from ~2,250 adults. Minds wandered 46.9% of the time, and wandering predicted unhappiness whether the drift ran toward the past or the future. The claim that 'future-thinking makes you happy' misreads the finding. Keep 'train your attention'; drop 'fantasize about the future'.

Source: Killingsworth, M. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2010). A wandering mind is an unhappy mind. Science, 330(6006), 932.

Ranganathan et al. (2004): after 12 weeks, subjects who only imagined abducting their pinky finger gained 35% strength versus 53% for physical training; the founding study (Yue & Cole, 1992) found 22% versus 30%. Motor imagery recruits much of the same cortex as execution. It trains skill and strength; it does not attract wealth.

Source: Ranganathan, V. K., et al. (2004). From mental power to muscle power. Neuropsychologia, 42(7), 944–956.

Pham & Taylor (1999) showed that students who mentally simulated the process of studying — planning, scheduling, executing — studied more and earned better grades than students who simulated the outcome. The study is UCLA (not Stanford) and has nothing to do with NLP. The process-versus-outcome distinction is one of the most useful findings in the corpus.

Source: Pham, L. B., & Taylor, S. E. (1999). From thought to action. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 25(2), 250–260.